Published by The Chronicle of Higher Education
It was one of the paradoxes of the pandemic. As enrollment wavered at most four-year colleges and dropped by as much as 15 percent on average at community colleges, many public flagship universities raked in record classes. Total fall enrollment at the University of Kentucky, for example, has climbed steadily from 31,110 in 2020 to 33,885 in 2023, according to federal data. Many other public flagships have continued to experience record growth as Covid-19 wanes.
But not all large public universities are experiencing boom times. The University of Nebraska at Lincoln is facing a projected $12-million budget deficit, in part due to declining enrollment, and is evaluating possible program cuts. Its exact shortfall won’t be known until early next year, a spokesperson said, but Nebraska’s four-campus system is estimated to be $58 million in the red by the end of the 2025 fiscal year. West Virginia University faces at $45-million budget gap, in part because of missed enrollment goals, and has proposed eliminating dozens of majors and programs. (The University of Arizona revealed last month that it had entered a state of “financial crisis” due to fiscal miscalculations.)
Why is the tide that’s lifting Kentucky and many of its peers not buoying Nebraska and West Virginia? Are the latter two institutions’ troubles the first of more widespread ills to come for flagships? The answers are complicated. The flagging flagships are victims, experts say, of a complex set of factors that include their locations, regional demographics, and institutional strategy. But their current troubles also signal that big public research universities, once considered indomitable, aren’t immune from the forces now buffeting higher education.
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Since most college students attend an institution within 50 miles of their home, regional student populations are critical. Like many other Midwestern states, Nebraska’s population of college-bound high-school graduates is expected to decline by as much as 15 percent through 2029, according to research by Nathan D. Grawe, a professor of economics at Carleton College. Grawe’s research also projects that West Virginia will lose up to 7.5 percent of its college-bound high-school graduates over the same period.
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Students who are choosing among several colleges often opt for institutions in more-urban settings, says Craig Goebel, a principal of the Art & Science Group, a company that consults with colleges on market strategy, and that decision isn’t just about more restaurant options and better concerts. “Can they get the internships and career connections that they’re looking for in those areas?” he asks. “Is that a place that they would want to live after graduation,” he says, which “can often be an important factor.”
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The appeal of a public flagship to residents of its state should be obvious. The appeal of that same flagship outside its homegrown audience may be less so. Within the increasingly aggressive enrollment landscape, “other institutions are invading your space,” says David Strauss, a principal of the Art & Science Group. “A flagship trying to reach beyond its space needs a position and appeal that’s competitively compelling to be able to do battle outside of its own catchment area, and even in its own catchment area against others that are intruding.” Whatever that appeal is — new programs, a new strategy, a new way of presenting the education the university offers — it will probably require time and money to establish, two things an institution facing multimillion-dollar budget gaps may lack in abundance.
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The recent troubles at West Virginia and Nebraska have been shaped by macro trends, but also, in part, by decisions made by state officials and campus leaders. Smart strategy has helped some flagships succeed, or at least not fall behind.
Many flagship leaders have put a premium on making sure their institutions will attract students and families. The University of Kentucky is one of the institutions that has experienced bounding growth in recent years. Total enrollment grew from 28,034 in 2012 to 30,390 in 2021, according to federal data, even though the state’s population has remained effectively flat throughout the 21st century so far. When Eli Capilouto took over as president in 2011, the university “had residence halls that were dilapidated, over 50 years old,” he says, “and didn’t lend themselves to good living and learning.” During his tenure, the institution has averaged investing a million dollars a day to upgrade its facilities, including more than $900 million in private capital through a public-private partnership to revamp its housing. “As people have told me,” he adds, “if you invest in where my child is going to live and learn, it says a lot about your priorities.”
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Flagships in more-populous states also have an advantage over their peers in less populous states like Nebraska and West Virginia — they have longer wait lists to draw from to supplement feeble fall classes. Of course, pulling from the wait list means admitting a student who might have attended another institution, sometimes another institution in the same state. Nanci Tessier, a principal at the Art & Science Group, recalls a recent conversation with an administrator, who works in enrollment management at a public flagship university, who told her, “‘We got our class, but we killed our regional publics in doing it.’”
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