Published by The Chronicle of Higher Education
Already bracing for an enrollment crash expected to hit in 2025, higher education got more bad news this week: The U.S. birth rate fell 4 percent in 2020, marking the lowest number of births since 1979 and the sixth consecutive year of declining birth rates, according to a report released this week by the National Center for Health Statistics.
Once that “demographic cliff” hits, the new data show, it won’t let up for more than a decade; babies born in 2020 won’t reach traditional college-going age until 2038. So enrollment managers who have already spent years stressing about declining birth rates and high-school graduation rates — some of the effects of which are already visible — should brace for the long haul, said Nanci Tessier, senior vice president at the Art & Science Group, a higher-education consulting firm.
“What’s clear is that the years ahead are not going to be any easier,” said Tessier, who has worked as a chief enrollment officer at three institutions. “It’s just going to be more and more challenging for colleges and universities to be able to fill their seats.”
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Still, with a smaller pool of college-age students, Tessier said, competition for them will only stiffen. Wealthy, selective colleges won’t see a drop in demand, she said, leaving questions about how smaller, regional institutions will fare, and whether they’ll be able to stake out a position in the market that sets them apart from their peers.
That means colleges should shift their focus away from “tactical” measures to increase short-term enrollment and onto a more holistic view of the educational experience they offer. “If you’re not looking hard at what it is that you’re offering students, and you think you can market your way out of this, you just can’t,” Tessier said.