Published by The Chronicle of Higher Education
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An institution that thrives on growth might begin to wither from too much of it.
Administrators at Auburn opted to try to keep enrollment about where it is for the fall of 2020. The decision was made easier by the fact that Alabama’s support for its public colleges isn’t tied to growth, so there’s no financial incentive to raise enrollment.
If App State grows to 20,000 students or beyond, must it "then always have at least 20,000 students" to maintain its finances? Koricich asks, even as the number of traditional-age students drop, and competition for them everywhere increases. "That’s hard. It’s a gamble."
Whenever a college considers growth, the subject should involve research and forethought, says Richard A. Hesel, a principal with the Art & Science Group, a company that does consulting work for colleges. "You have to plan for this," he says. "It can’t be willy-nilly, because then you get caught with your pants down."
Hesel recommends that any college weighing a strategy of growth consider trying something called scenario planning. The practice imagines what might happen in various situations — say, if enrollment grows but state support drops — and how various responses to them might make matters better or worse.
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Whether Appalachian State can enroll 20,000 students by 2020 remains to be seen, but some in Boone are already wondering if the growth will stop there. Brantz, the mayor, says he’s already heard local business people discussing the prospect of 25 by 2025.
On campus, Raichle, chair of the department of sustainable technology and the built environment, says he knows what should happen if enrollment hits 20,000 in six months. But he suspects he knows what will actually happen.
What should happen is that a department chair like him should put his foot down. "Just say, No, we’re done," he says. "We’re not going to increase the capacity of our classes. We’re going to tell the students to go to the chancellor, go to the dean, and bitch and complain, because maybe that would cause a change."
That’s what he wants to do. "But that’s not what’s going to happen," he says. "What’s going to happen is, we’re going to increase the caps in our classes. I’m going to have faculty advising 70 majors. We’re going to try so hard to not drop the quality. We’re going to try to accommodate those students who aren’t prepared. That is what’s going to happen."
And some people will call that a win.