Published by The Chronicle of Higher Education
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While it’s true that the yawning uncertainty of the Covid-19 pandemic presents a new and unprecedented challenge for colleges, in many ways the current crisis is just accelerating or steepening challenges that colleges already face. Thanks to declining demographics, stagnant incomes, and escalating costs, the business model of many colleges is coming under increasing pressure. Old certainties, and old rules, apply less and less. The competition for students — and the increasingly critical revenue they represent — grows ever more intense. The value of what a college offers stands in question, and students’ willingness and ability to pay for it wanes.
Perhaps the biggest challenge facing colleges trying to predict what students are going to do is that many students aren’t sure themselves. Two surveys of college-bound high-school seniors conducted by the Art & Science Group, a higher-ed consulting company, found one in six students doubting that they would attend a four-year institution in the fall, and almost two-thirds uncertain whether they would enroll at their first-choice institution.
Admissions leaders have scrambled to reach students in this volatile new environment. On-campus events for admitted students, for example, have transformed into a galaxy of virtual tours and video chats. Colleges have also adjusted deposit dates, and a few have offered tuition deals, both tactics that may help allow students to attend in the fall, but which will create complications for institutions. Changes in college recruiting rules could lead to a summer some characterize as “the Wild West.” And when something like normalcy returns, admissions will find itself transformed.
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Given the economic disruptions of the pandemic, which are likely to be significant and could last years, there may be advantages for colleges that are willing to be flexible about price. “If it's something that a family sees as responsive in the short term to the impact of Covid-19, I think that that can be received well,” says Nanci Tessier, a senior vice president at Art & Science Group and a former chief enrollment officer at several colleges. But colleges must communicate clearly and carefully about what they’re offering, she adds, to avoid being seen as opportunistic.
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