Published by Education Dive
Dive Brief:
Around 17% of 1,171 high school seniors who planned to attend a four-year college full time before the coronavirus pandemic no longer plan to do so, according to a recent survey from Art & Science Group, a higher education consulting firm.
Of that group, 40% had already made a deposit to a college. Two-thirds of surveyed students also said they were worried about being able to attend their top school.
As colleges stress about their fall yields, the findings indicate deposits will be a less-reliable indicator of students' commitments than they have been historically.
Dive Insight:
College administrators are concerned they won't be able to fill their classes this fall because of the pandemic's economic impact. The coronavirus has largely spoiled the recruiting season by forcing officials to cancel campus tours and other events, though some colleges have held them virtually.
Uncertainty also abounds over how the fall term will be conducted. Although a handful of colleges have told students they will start the 2020-21 academic year online, others haven't announced their plans or are preparing for several scenarios.
"Students want a four-year residential college experience," said Richard Hesel, principal at Art & Science, in an interview with Education Dive. "If they can't have it, they'll delay going, they'll switch places." Even if they made a deposit, he added, "they may not go anywhere."
Some observers say students may respond by turning to community colleges as a way to spend less on tuition or skip the fall term entirely by taking a gap year. Subsequent enrollment declines could hurt four-year colleges, many of which have had to issue room and board refunds and make major investments in their digital infrastructure in short order.
Although the U.S. Department of Education is distributing about $14 billion to colleges from the CARES Act, higher ed groups say the amount is not enough to cushion the financial blow from the pandemic.
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